February 2015

Argument from incredulity

A few days back one of my favorite writers, David Roberts at Grist posted an article titled We can solve climate change, but it won’t be cheap or easy. This was based on an article in WIREs Climate Change, A critical review of global decarbonization scenarios: what do they tell us about feasibility? by a group of authors including Jesse Jenkins, a young energy analyst I've also been following for a while. Andy Revkin at dot Earth picked up on Roberts' post as a positive sign, while Joe Romm at Climate Progress had a rather pointed critique.

I don't want to get into the details of the report or most of these arguments here; there was just one point that I thought was very odd when highlighted in Roberts' post, and exemplified by the following figure from the report:

Roberts quotes the authors as follows on this:

These studies also envision a normalized build-out of generating capacity in the range of 5-23 GW/year/$T of GDP, or 1.4-15 times faster than historical experience. These unprecedented rates are a consequence of both the relatively low-capacity factors of wind and solar as well as increased demand due to the assumed widespread electrification of the economy.

What struck me was this measure of "build-out of generating capacity" in GW/year/$T of GDP. The graph suggests past experience on this measure should be a guide to the future, and therefore the Jacobson, WWF, etc. scenarios are unlikely to be feasible. But why did the authors pick this measure?

The Pace Layers of Scholarly Publishing

I've been working on a post roughly on this topic for a while, and it's been getting long and meandering - so I've split it up. I'm expecting the following to be part one of several.

Scholarly communication as it is now is far from ideal. In what ways could it change to make things better? One way I have been thinking about it recently is in the context of Stewart Brand's "pace layers diagram"; Long Now Foundation just posted an interesting audio recording of a discussion about its origin and uses. The idea is that systems are composed of layers with differing rates of change:

The fast layers at the top are where innovation and experimentation happens, while the slow layers at the bottom bring stability. Changing things too quickly at the bottom isn't safe; forcing the top to slow down is equally harmful. Even our nature as human beings changes slowly over time, but for the most part that layer is given. Let's examine the other layers of the scholarly communication system a little: