climate sensitivity

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The Monckton equation

My last few posts have been on some examples of dubious scientific publications. Some publishers are bad actors. Some authors are naively over-confident and have found naive editors or publishers to match. Sometimes it can be hard to tell. The last case I'm going to look at here is perhaps the worst situation - where the authors are clearly behaving badly, and somehow made it through some form of peer review. This is the sort of thing that gets reported regularly on Retraction Watch, and also similar to the Gerlich and Tscheuschner case except that the journal in question is slightly more prestigious (G&T's journal, IJMP-B, has an impact factor of less than 0.5). And once again the topic is climate change.

The paper this time is Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model by Christopher Monckton, Willie W.-H. Soon, David R. Legates, and William M. Briggs, published in Science Bulletin by Science China Press and Springer-Verlag. Given that Springer is about to merge with Nature, the break-down of reasonable peer review in this case indirectly reflects badly on one of the most prestigious journal brands in all of Science (Springer is of course also highly regarded).

Monckton and friends' paper has been widely criticized already by ... and Then There's Physics, Jan Perlwitz in two articles and from Roz Pidcock at the Carbon Brief who quotes various other scientists on the topic. Since the essential argument is barely changed from Monckton's 2008 Physics & Society (P&S) article that I found full of errors I thought it deserved a bit of post-publication attention from me also. It really is astonishing that this work was approved by an editor for what looks like a reasonable scientific journal.

At first sight this article isn't as obviously nutty as some of those I've discussed here previously - the graphics and tables seem to be well designed, the reference section looks fairly substantive. The mathematics is once again pure algebra with not a sign of an understanding of the calculus invented by Newton and Leibniz a few hundred years back - and we'll get back to that. But other than the overly simplistic math, the paper may not strike the experienced editor immediately as absurd.

Synopsis of the CO2 problem

On what I believe is a private discussion site I was asked a number of questions about the climate problem. I'm copying my answers here (with some minor corrections of typos and for context) as they may be found helpful for others... or at least as a reminder to myself of what I know.

Q. 1 "I look forward to any insight you can provide into the real verifiable evidence of the human footprint."

A. 1
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "verifiable evidence". You acknowledge climate seems to be changing. There are two distinct pieces of knowledge that go into "blaming" it on us humans, each of which has been substantiated from multiple observations and physical understanding. These are:

(1) Humans have caused atmospheric CO2 levels to increase considerably over the past century. This youtube video shows the wide range of observations of that increase in considerable detail, also showing how it compares with past changes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2mZyCblxS4

Peer review failures - another example?

I've discussed scientific peer review here before (one more - I really should get those category tags working!) but RealClimate's discussion of Lindzen and Choi (2009) highlights a particular example of recent peer review standards in sufficient

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