My last few posts have been on some examples of dubious scientific publications. Some publishers are bad actors. Some authors are naively over-confident and have found naive editors or publishers to match. Sometimes it can be hard to tell. The last case I'm going to look at here is perhaps the worst situation - where the authors are clearly behaving badly, and somehow made it through some form of peer review. This is the sort of thing that gets reported regularly on Retraction Watch, and also similar to the Gerlich and Tscheuschner case except that the journal in question is slightly more prestigious (G&T's journal, IJMP-B, has an impact factor of less than 0.5). And once again the topic is climate change.
The paper this time is Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model by Christopher Monckton, Willie W.-H. Soon, David R. Legates, and William M. Briggs, published in Science Bulletin by Science China Press and Springer-Verlag. Given that Springer is about to merge with Nature, the break-down of reasonable peer review in this case indirectly reflects badly on one of the most prestigious journal brands in all of Science (Springer is of course also highly regarded).
Monckton and friends' paper has been widely criticized already by ... and Then There's Physics, Jan Perlwitz in two articles and from Roz Pidcock at the Carbon Brief who quotes various other scientists on the topic. Since the essential argument is barely changed from Monckton's 2008 Physics & Society (P&S) article that I found full of errors I thought it deserved a bit of post-publication attention from me also. It really is astonishing that this work was approved by an editor for what looks like a reasonable scientific journal.
At first sight this article isn't as obviously nutty as some of those I've discussed here previously - the graphics and tables seem to be well designed, the reference section looks fairly substantive. The mathematics is once again pure algebra with not a sign of an understanding of the calculus invented by Newton and Leibniz a few hundred years back - and we'll get back to that. But other than the overly simplistic math, the paper may not strike the experienced editor immediately as absurd.
Dr. Judith Curry is chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, and has an extensive background in studying Earth's climate, particularly regarding changes in storms, hurricanes, and the like under changing climate conditions. She recently coauthored what seems a very interesting paper on the growth of Antarctic sea ice - apparently the effect of a moderate degree of warming such as we've seen so far is to actually increase sea ice extent in the southern ocean, thanks to increased precipitation in the form of snow. Higher sea temperatures mean more evaporation of water (mostly closer to the equator) which in turn leads to higher levels of precipitation (mostly further south), and if it's cold enough to snow, then paradoxically the result is actually more ice on the water surface, not less.
Since various people thought some of my recent comments trying to explain certain basic properties of the greenhouse effect were educational, I thought I'd repost them here organized in more narrative fashion, as a follow-on to the previous "climate change basics" post. The questions this time regarded the definitions of radiative forcing and feedbacks, the magnitude of various feedbacks, and the relation of surface energy fluxes (the subject of the previous post) to different forcings. Once again the Trenberth-Fasullo-Kiehl diagram of Earth's energy flows is a useful reference:
The following is a collection and rearrangement of some of my comments on how we know about the radiative effects of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and how big they are, made on another blog. I'm posting these here as in working things out to my own satisfaction to try to respond to some rather egregiously wrong claims by the blogger there, I believe I clarified a few things in a way that's worth preserving.
The starting view here has to be the Kiehl-Trenberth diagram of Earth's energy flows, even though in some ways (which I'll get to below) it may be slightly misleading.