A few months ago Tamino at Open Mind posted a fascinating analysis of warming obtained by fitting the various observational temperature series to a linear combination of El Nino, volcano, and solar cycle variations (using sun spots as a proxy for the latter), plus an underlying trend, allowing for some offsets in time between the causative series and the temperature. Year to year global average temperatures fluctuate significantly, by several tenths of a degree. Taking into account these "exogenous" factors, however, greatly reduced the level of variation. Not only does this more clearly show the underlying trend, once the "exogenous" components are removed, but it occurred to me this also allows prediction of future temperatures with considerably more confidence than the usual guessing (though I've done well with that in the past), at least for a short period into the future.
See below for a detailed discussion of what I've done with Tamino's model, for the GISS global surface temperature series. In brief, however, I present the results of two slightly different models of the future, first with no El Nino contribution beyond mid-2011, and second with a pure 5-year-cycle El Nino (starting from zero in positive phase) from mid-2011 on.
| Year |
Model 1 prediction for GISS Jan-Dec
global average temperature anomaly |
Model 2 prediction |
| 2011 |
0.576 |
0.578 |
| 2012 |
0.687 |
0.785 |
| 2013 |
0.718 |
0.840 |
While there's some variation in future years, the final average temperature for 2011 should be close to 0.58 (similar to the temperatures in 2009). Temperatures in 2012 are likely to be much warmer - at least breaking the record of 0.63 set in 2005 and 2010, possibly (model 2) by as much as 0.15 degrees. With the continued waxing of the solar cycle and continued increases from CO2 effects, however warm 2012 is, 2013 should be even warmer (unless we get a big volcano or another strong La Nina then).
