and the final number for 2012 was 0.56 - a tad below the predicted range, but I'm actually rather pleased - much closer to the range than I'd expected given how things were progressing early in the year. My guess for 2012 was off by 0.09 C - but the "projected January value" of 0.36 was off by 0.19 degrees, more than double that difference. So really, once again, reality much more closely hews to science than to the "cooling" proclamations of the deniers.
I do want to do a bit more thorough analysis on what happened in 2012 - something seems to be slightly off with the Foster-Rahmstorff fits, but ENSO has also been acting unusually - once again being in negative territory for much of the year and ending in neutral with no significant period spent positive. ENSO's unpredictability is a big factor in why I've been somewhat off the last couple of years, but maybe there's more to it than that.
Anyway, shortly it will be time to see the January 2013 numbers and try my luck at a prediction for the coming year including some ENSO and solar projections...
August GISS number is out at 0.56, higher than I just guessed, so good. Except the early numbers for the year have dropped - January 2012 is now 0.32 and February 0.37 !! So the average for the year so far is still only 0.49.
So as of September...
* GISS has been pretty low so far this year. August number is not out yet, but through July the average is 0.49. Nick Stokes has posted TEMPLS for August and it is up a little, the equivalent GISS number I believe would be about 0.53 (GISS for July was 0.47). That puts the average for the year through August likely right around 0.50. To hit 0.68 by the end of the year would require an avarege of 0.95 the next 4 months! Just to bring the average up to 0.58 (lower bound of my guess for 2012) by the end of December would require GISS to average 0.74 for the next 4 months - that seems unlikely so I have to agree with PaulK2's guess that it's going to be lower than my predicted range this year. Some other factor besides ENSO is keeping temperatures lower than expected? I have to say it's kind of interesting this method is not working out so well this year, I'd love to understand better what's going on...
The interesting question I think is whether the projected January guess of 0.36 will end up closer to the final number than my prediction of 0.68. So far 0.36 is winning by a hair, but if the average bumps over 0.52 by the end of the year then at least it's closer to my number in the end. Small satisfaction there if it happens...
* The latest ENSO MEI number has headed down - July/August is shown as 0.576 down from a real El Nino level of 1.139 in June/July. Maybe the El Nino everybody's been expecting won't show up after all, and we'll be back in La Nina territory and 2013 won't be so warm after all? Interestingly this is something Michael Mann has been predicting for a while - increased predominance of La Nina's as things warm up. Well, prediction is always hard... especially about the future, as Yogi Berra is supposed to have said.
Nice piece! The only thing I miss is that renewable energies are indeed highly variable, bit predictively so.... The day ahead forecast for renewable energy is good so the market can properly work to make up the difference in the demand curve.
This is for wind
Yes, I'd say Romm is likely to win. I wasn't even aware of this bet though, do you have a link? There's a chance from pure random variation that the average will be low though - but I'd put the odds around 2:1 in favor of Romm on that. Around 10:1 it will be more than 0.10 degrees C warmer.
Given that the April GISS anomaly is already 0.56, and the readings the rest of the year should trend higher due to the influence of ENSO conditions, your guess of 0.51 seems certain to be quite low.
Examining the current status of your prediction, we find the GISS anomaly for the first four months (Jan-Apr) has averaged 0.44, so in order to hit 0.65 for the full year, the GISS anomaly has to average 0.75 for the rest of the year, quite a bit higher than last month's 0.56. To get eight months with an average that high means we would need to likely see most of the months over 0.70 and historically there has only been seven months in the GISS data so far that high. Therefore your forecast looks a bit high at this point.
However, ENSO has gone neutral, and in fact the last weekly reading of the Niño 3.4 anomaly is 0.0 ℃, and the last two month reading of the MEI for Mar/Apr is already at +0.06, so we are rapidly transitioning to warmer SSTs in the Pacific. Furthermore, one of the presentation slides in NOAA weekly report shows subsurface heat spreading out across the Pacific, and the CFS.v2 ensemble mean in the same weekly report predicts El Niño conditions to develop by JJA 2012 (3rd slide from the end of the weekly report http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_ev... ...but note the link changes to a new page every week).
So your assessment of ENSO neutral for the year may be a bit low, and for a neutral 2013 considerably too low. It seems you may miss to the downside, perhaps to the edge of your confidence interval for 2012 (say down at 0.58 to 0.60) because of the cool four months we just went through. But the prediction for 2013 of 0.72 is looking pretty good at this time. We should be able to tell by the end of July, if an El Niño is developing, so the next couple of months should be interesting. The fact that we can predict the global temperature anomaly fairly accurately over the next several years (excepting major tropical volcanic eruptions), seems to increase the credibility of the model forecasts for longer terms, even though I realize that may not be the case.
Also, do you think Romm is likely to win his bet with Fuller that 2010-2019 will be at least .15 warmer than 2000-2009? What would you say is the over-under number?
As I posted in the other thread, hae you accounted for the change in Gistemp? If you rerun your Feb 2011 run with the new numbers, do you still get .58?
Did you account for the change to GISTEMP v3? Try rerunning your model with the new numbers, as of Feb 2011.
And March GISS anomaly is 0.46 - heading up. Also the MEI ENSO values for February/March are up - -0.41 relative to -0.702 for January/February. The latest predictions for the rest of the year aren't up yet but it looks like the La Nina is definitely close to over. Assuming the lingering La Nina suppression has been about the 0.07 degree level we should see temperatures up about that much (i.e. in the mid 0.5's) in coming months. Of course to hit 0.65 for the year the average will have to be 0.73 for the rest of the year. I guess we'll see how things play out...
I'm not very skeptical of another degree C of warming in the 21st century, so maybe I'm not a proper skeptic; however, I am very skeptical of four degrees, and I'm also skeptical of two degrees. After a decade, I see no evidence of an accelerating warming trend. Outside of talk radio, the controversy involves theoretical feedbacks driving this acceleration, not warming vs. cooling. If temperatures don't rise more rapidly soon, I predict that skeptics of AGW skepticism will lower the bar even further.
I'm glad to see that you've backed WAY off your original guess of 0.80 from back in 2008. Based on the increasing difference between your guess and actual temperature I'll guess that 2012 will come in at 0.51 or .14 lower than your guess.
It looks like we're well on our way to ENSO neutral conditions as forecast by several of the models. The big question is whether that will continue or whether we will move into a weak El Nino.
And now the February MEI number is out and it improved to -0.7 for February 2012, so this winter's mild La Nina is vanishing quickly. Most of the ENSO predictions going forward look to see positive territory by June or July, through the end of the year. Nobody's predicting a La Nina return this time, so I continue to believe 2012 will be quite warm.
March is certainly living up to those expectations in the northern hemisphere at least!
February GISS temperatures are out - anomaly is 0.40. So the first two months of 2012 have been cooler, globally, than every single month of 2011. And yet I stand by my expectation that 2012 will end up hotter than 2011 by the end. Anyone willing to put their name in asserting the cooler side? I notice very few "skeptics" seem to be willing to put numbers to predictions of future temperatures. After the hottest decade in our records, it's perhaps not surprising...
I believe I've heard of Paul Hawken, but I haven't read that. Thanks for the reference, I'll probably look it up.
It seems to me if sustainability is possible at all, and if full employment is also possible, they shouldn't be incompatible. But I certainly don't know how economic theory would deal with it.
Have you read "The Ecology of Commerce" by Paul Hawken? Having an economy humming along at full tilt may increase the wealth of the community, but it has profound costs. I wonder if anyone has attempted to construct an economic theory where full employment and sustainability were both possible. And if so, what would the society look like?
Sounds like you believe in a conspiracy? And yet the GISS temperature code is the one most easily reproduced by outsiders - at least until the new BEST temperature set came out (and that is land-only, not global, so far). The code and data are all publicly available, and the code itself was rewritten by the Clear Climate Code project, and Nick Stokes has his own "TempLS" that reproduces the same technique in detail - see his blog for examples. Hadley's source data is still not all completely available as far as I'm aware. UAH keeps updating their approach (latest version is "5.3" but supposedly a new "6.0" version will come out with who knows what new adjustments).
Aside from which, this prediction is mine, not Rahmstorf's. I don't know if he would even agree with the estimate I've made.
But if you believe one of the other temperature series is better please go ahead and make your own guess for what it will show by the end of this year. All the global temperature measures have been tracking one another pretty closely for the past 30+ years.
Rahmstorf predicts Hansen will come up with record temperature. There's a surprise.
> after you see the hockey sticks in CO2, energy use, land use, species loss, population, etc.
If you think Mike is using difficult language now, you should read some of his early RealClimate posts... he has learned a lot over the years.
It is clear that this is a job that he didn't choose himself to take on, but he is dispatching it remarkably well for a scientist. Certainly better than I ever will. See his TED talk for instance:
He is quite clear here about the enemy. More so than in the book?
I'm waiting for the paper thing -- old-fashioned in that way
When I wrote this post only 2 months of GISS data had been posted, not 4 - so it's 10 months rather than 8 months of "prediction". And I really did not expected the La Nina to roar back as quickly as it did - I put too much trust in the average of the model projections without looking more closely at the distribution of different scenarios. Ah well.
Even if 2012 continues La Nina, it's going to be hotter than 2011.
And I do see the NASA press release says 0.51 C anomaly - nevertheless, their data table, which is the reference I have used for all other comparisons here, says 0.52. So 0.52 is the relevant number relative to my guesses or predictions - it's whatever the number is in the January-December column at the end of the year. Now maybe they'll update that a little as they do sometimes, as more stations report in. I'll check in later this month and see.
Umm, where are you guys coming from? I did indeed post an update back in April last year with a more precise form of "prediction" for 2011 and 2012 - these earlier items mentioned in this post were basically just guesses to tweak the many climateaudit folks who claimed things were "cooling" - obviously they weren't. And as I said specifically in this post I didn't expect 2011 and 2012 to be nearly so close. My 2011 updated guess was 0.57 - so a little high, the difference largely due to the unexpected return of La Nina late in the year. We'll see how 2012 goes.
Interestingly I just finished reading Michael Mann's new book (Kindle edition is already out) and one of the things he apparently looked at over the years was whether warming generally would trigger more extreme La Nina conditions. The last few years have perhaps shown there might be something to Mann's link there - it'll be interesting if that pans out.
Closing comments on this post.
2011 wasn't close to your previous prediction of 0.75C for 2011! The official GISS land sea temperature was 0.51C not 0.52C so your prediction where you stated "I'm fairly confident now that the GISS temperature anomaly average for 2011 will be 0.58, plus or minus about 0.05 degrees" is also a bust. It seems to me that missing by 0.07C in just 8 months is a pretty big miss considering you gave yourself a 0.1C window.
I have a feeling that 2012 won't come close to setting a record either since the La Nina is forecast to continue. 2013? Who knows, if a strong El Nino forms it's possible.
Are you going to write a post about how badly you missed on your prediction for 2011? GISS is reporting 0.51°C so your prediction was off by almost a 1/4 of a degree C. Your prediction for 2012 is looking bad too.
So much for your predictive powers. Seems that you can't simply draw a straight line and expect to be correct after all. Amazing huh?
And now, 2011 is over and GISS has posted the final number for the year - down in the bottom under J-D for 2011 we have "52" which means an anomaly of 0.52 C. So - the prediction of this post, made after only the first 2 months data for the year were available, was too high by 0.056 C for the year - a tad worse than my previous guesses, but not that bad overall.
The reason the final number for the year is on the low side is almost certainly because ENSO went negative again starting around the middle of 2011 - when I was using predictions from early in the year that it should stay roughly neutral or slightly positive. As noted in the April 5th comment above, even if ENSO stays negative (La Nina conditions) we should see 2012 slightly hotter than 2011 - and temperatures zooming up shortly after. The latest ENSO forecast sees La Nina conditions probably through May or June of 2012. We'll see!