The final 2010 Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global land+ocean temperature numbers are out and just as I predicted, this year was the hottest in their record. Once again my prediction (really mostly a guess) was within just a few hundredths of a degree of the final number for the year:
|Year||Arthur's Feb 2008 prediction||GISS - January 2011||Difference|
I also predicted even higher numbers for 2011 and 2012 (0.75 and 0.80 respectively); while there's a chance those will again set record high temperatures, I now expect it's more likely the temperature anomaly will stay somewhere in the 0.6's rather than reach 0.7 or higher for the next few years. But continued warming is certainly inevitable with our continued emission of fossil carbon dioxide, so within the next 10 years we will surely see GISS yearly temperature anomalies over 0.80, and within 20 years over 1.0.
If you look at the GISS table you'll see the starting temperature anomalies in the 1880's had annual global averages around -0.3 degrees C. So the global temperature increase from 1880's to now in the GISS record (assuming 2010 is setting a new normal) is about 0.9 degrees C, or 1.6 degrees F. Given the rather obvious climate effects even such a small change is causing, the additional 0.4 degrees we can expect in the next 2 decades should give us serious pause for thought.
Steve McIntyre at ClimateAudit has kindly archived my February 2008 predictions here.