My predictive powers continue to astound

As I noted back in December last year, way back in February 2008 when the whole world (at least of climate "skeptics") seemed to be touting a new global cooling trend, I had made some slightly educated guesses about the global average temperature through the end of that year, and for good measure for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 too. My numbers were calibrated to the Goddard Institute global land and ocean temperature index as were the others on the thread - here are mine:

2008: 0.41
2009: 0.55
2010: 0.65
2011: 0.75
2012: 0.80

GISS numbers bump up and down a little bit over time as new data comes in from meteorological stations around the world, but they tend to be stable to within about 0.02 degrees C. So how did my guesses turn out? So far, very very good:

2008: 0.44
2009: 0.57
2010 (first 8 months): 0.67

I.e. I was under by just 0.02 or 0.03 degrees in 2008 and 2009, and so far in 2010 I'm in exactly the same prediction territory. By the way, anything over 0.62 will make 2010 the hottest year in the entire GISS record - we're definitely on track for that so far.

Now I have my doubts about my 2011 and 2012 guesses - in fact I'm amazed I'm still doing this well. Time will tell...


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We now have 10 months from

We now have 10 months from GISS, and it's at 0.647 average so far - just a tiny bit under my 2-year-old guess now. If the last two months of 2010 cool down to the coldest such pair we've seen in this century (Nov and Dec 2007) then the average for the year will be a little over 0.61. If they amount to roughly the average of 2001-2009 November+December numbers, the 2010 average will be 0.63. If November and December stick about where October was, it'll be 0.64. And if they peak up to the same as November+December 2006 (the highest such pair ever), it will be 0.65.

So I think we're pretty safe in expecting the final numbers for 2010 to be between very close to or up to 0.04 degrees below my guess from February 2008. If it's much different, something wild will have happened these last two months of the year.

Probably about time to shine

Probably about time to shine up your monthly bugle, Mr. Astounding!