As I noted back in December last year, way back in February 2008 when the whole world (at least of climate "skeptics") seemed to be touting a new global cooling trend, I had made some slightly educated guesses about the global average temperature through the end of that year, and for good measure for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 too. My numbers were calibrated to the Goddard Institute global land and ocean temperature index as were the others on the thread - here are mine:
GISS numbers bump up and down a little bit over time as new data comes in from meteorological stations around the world, but they tend to be stable to within about 0.02 degrees C. So how did my guesses turn out? So far, very very good:
2010 (first 8 months): 0.67
I.e. I was under by just 0.02 or 0.03 degrees in 2008 and 2009, and so far in 2010 I'm in exactly the same prediction territory. By the way, anything over 0.62 will make 2010 the hottest year in the entire GISS record - we're definitely on track for that so far.
Now I have my doubts about my 2011 and 2012 guesses - in fact I'm amazed I'm still doing this well. Time will tell...